Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 1.443200 1.636953 1.843022 2.078068 2.338285 2.617092 2.937950
2024-12-29 1.228368 1.501178 1.809558 2.182279 2.618777 3.111927 3.709300
2025-01-05 0.988054 1.298926 1.671670 2.147651 2.735038 3.431645 4.315306
2025-01-12 0.816274 1.152961 1.580473 2.155814 2.901545 3.826404 5.049820
2025-01-19 0.668038 1.014567 1.480504 2.140702 3.037918 4.198937 5.796228
2025-01-26 0.576414 0.938191 1.451643 2.214782 3.297714 4.753650 6.827757
2025-02-02 0.494150 0.862124 1.413111 2.271105 3.540253 5.309466 7.913525
2025-02-09 0.417706 0.781975 1.357538 2.296000 3.741388 5.827574 8.994906
2025-02-16 0.355615 0.713955 1.310789 2.328116 3.956330 6.384440 10.178753
2025-02-23 0.290359 0.627954 1.222248 2.282834 4.048077 6.768592 11.143861
2025-03-02 0.230391 0.538984 1.114504 2.191092 4.055310 7.024315 11.936899
2025-03-09 0.193910 0.487826 1.065626 2.193163 4.215284 7.529785 13.151006
2025-03-16 0.158745 0.432923 1.003954 2.170288 4.341525 8.009894 14.393463
2025-03-23 0.139173 0.408004 0.997209 2.249406 4.656444 8.829308 16.250096
2025-03-30 0.111214 0.355574 0.924449 2.190635 4.715935 9.223971 17.439538
2025-04-06 0.091803 0.318992 0.878934 2.179989 4.864113 9.784887 18.952656
2025-04-13 0.074662 0.283028 0.827629 2.149397 4.970131 10.279487 20.388052
2025-04-20 0.065204 0.266435 0.819272 2.210864 5.264933 11.139068 22.522092
2025-04-27 0.056344 0.248733 0.804729 2.256372 5.531936 11.967446 24.655385
2025-05-04 0.047664 0.228406 0.779138 2.272285 5.738345 12.696256 26.654382
2025-05-11 0.040628 0.211173 0.758382 2.296803 5.965660 13.481971 28.808189
2025-05-18 0.032624 0.186526 0.710631 2.246162 6.020974 13.931739 30.356496
2025-05-25 0.025116 0.159845 0.649802 2.151041 5.963680 14.148711 31.470450